The Suzuka circuit, hosting the Japanese GP for the first time in three years, is a rollercoaster ride that all drivers love, though it might catch debutants – and with such a long absence from the calendar, there are quite a few this year – unawares in places
F1 neutrals will be praying that the title chase goes down to the wire in Abu Dhabi in November, but if things go Jenson Button’s way, this could be it. So, how will the man from Frome fare, and just who else can spoil Jense’s Japanese party?
Jenson Button (GBR) – Brawn-Mercedes
Current position in standings: 1st, 84pts
People keep knocking Jenson, saying he’s lost his nerve because he’ll never get a better chance of a title, but he’s still there at the top, and astute strategy and solid driving – and mistakes by some of his title rivals – saw him actually increase his net lead in the championship standings in Singapore. ‘Making the best of a bad job’ – fifth place after starting 11th at Marina Bay – doesn’t really cover it. Six wins from the first seven grands prix, even when your car is a country mile ahead of the rather surprised competition, should still make Jenson a worthy winner even if he doesn’t get on the podium again this year. His record at Suzuka is also pretty good, with a third, two fourths, two fifths, a sixth and a seventh from his seven previous visits – and the year of that podium, 2004, when he finished third in the championship with BAR, on 85pts, was the only season where you can say he had a truly competitive car…
Rubens Barrichello (BRA) – Brawn-Mercedes
Current position in standings: 2nd, 69pts
Rubens is now the most experienced driver in F1 history by a long chalk, but with the smart money on there being a job-swap for the veteran Brazilian with Williams’ Nico Rosberg for 2010, this might be the last realistic chance of a drivers’ title to add to his distinguished long-service record. And Brawn, despite their apparent keenness to dispense with his services, are giving him a fair crack of the whip, as radio communications from his engineer in Singapore in relation to Jenson Button’s strategy suggested. He made it quite clear earlier this season that he wasn’t prepared to be the bridesmaid to Button as he was to Michael Schumacher at Ferrari, but no such noises have been heard for quite some time now. He has won at Suzuka, with Ferrari in 2003, following his second place in 2002, but his latter form has been indifferent, with a retirement, 11th place, then 12th last time here in ’06. Realistically, Rubens has to win this year. Qualifying performance, and a little more luck with his engine management system on the starting grid than in some races this season, may be the key.
Sebastian Vettel (GER) – RBR-Renault
Current position in standings: 3rd, 59pts
He might be one of the paddock’s nice guys, but never let it be said that Vettel is a soft touch. In the run-up to the grand prix at Suzuka, he has made it clear that his tilt for the 2009 drivers’ crown won’t be over until the fat lady sings. Weather may be a factor. Vettel has shown with this debut win for Toro Rosso last year and his first for RBR this year in China that he is supreme in the wet, and there might be a deluge in Japan come October 4 – or the risk of a heavy shower at least. But the pitlane speeding error in Singapore that cost Seb at least a podium, as with similar mistakes earlier in the season, show that the 22-year-old is still learning, and his experience of Suzuka amounts to a short practice session three years ago. Any repeat of the error in Singapore, or his first-lap wobble in Turkey where he lost his lead from pole to Jenson Button on lap one, and the fat lady might be clearing her throat.
Lewis Hamilton (GBR) – McLaren-Mercedes
Current position in standings: 6th, 37pts
Oh, what might have been… No one, even Lewis himself, the king of self-belief, predicted that the shitbox of an MP4-24 that started this season would eventually be good enough to deliver two GP wins. On a drivers’ parade lap earlier this season, Jenson Button jokingly asked for his countryman’s help in securing his title, but Hamilton has made it clear that he’ll be challenging Button for the title in 2010. A slight dig from Hamilton recently, comparing Button’s current situation to his own two years ago, when he lost a 17pt lead to Kimi Räikkönen in the final two races, suggest that the two will never be best buddies. With Alonso, the third man in that 2007 fight in the sister McLaren, back in a good car (assuming that Ferrari will have learned from last year’s slow-development mistakes), next year could be a real humdinger. Meanwhile, despite his comments, the ironic truth is that if Lewis continues his improvement by following his Singapore victory with more wins, as he hopes, he might just be the deciding factor that sees his compatriot Button take his title.
Fernando Alonso (SPA) – Renault
Current position in standings: 8th, 26pts
Ferrari have finally confirmed what we all knew already – Fernando will be a Ferrari driver next year in place of Kimi Räikkönen. This means that, finally, all the other machinations in the driver market can now take place, with Robert Kubica to Renault in Fernando’s stead and Kimi back to McLaren the two loudest rumours. It’s reported that Alonso might have signed for the Prancing Horse as long as 15 months ahead of the announcement, but apparently the move for 2010 – rather than 2011 – was a late development. On the track, Alonso will want to sign off with the kind of end-of-season run he enjoyed last year for his beleaguered ‘family’ at Renault. A podium last time out in Singapore is a solid foundation, as is the fact that he was the last winner at Suzuka in 2006, effectively ending the challenge of title rival Michael Schumacher. Fernando has said that he wants to emulate Schumi’s achievements in the red car – with the kind of performances he can still wring out of the distinctly average Renault R29, few will doubt this is possible.
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