He’ll be celebrating his 26th birthday on Sunday, in front of his home fans – but Casey Stoner could also make it triply special at Phillip Island by taking the 2011 MotoGP title too.
Casey Stoner made his debut in MotoGP at the age of just 20 in 2006, and after his first stint on a Honda that year – an LCR, in its debut season, on which he took a pole positon in his second race – he went on to Ducati during the Italian team’s purple patch, taking the 2007 title on the red machine.
GEPA Pictures/Gold & Goose
Things were never quite as good again at Ducati Corse, not helped by the mystery illness in 2009 that scuppered any chance of title glory and was eventually put down to a type of anaemia, but after his triumphant return to the Repsol Honda set-up with Dani Pedrosa and Andrea Dovizioso this season, Casey now has his best chance in four seasons of making himself a double MotoGP champion. We look at this year’s stats, and do the maths to see how Casey could seal the deal in Australia this Sunday in the best possible way!
All graphs and statistical images © Repsol Media 
After a great winning start in Qatar came that crash in Spain, which meant it took Casey another four races to seize back the initiative from the reigning world champion, as Jorge Lorenzo failed to score at Silverstone.
It’s not just about winning… Casey, with the exception of that one DNF, has been on the podium at every other race this season. Lorenzo has many more second places than Casey (six to Casey’s one) but only one third place to Casey’s five, then three fourths and a sixth place too, with just that one retirement at the British round.
What has also helped Stoner has been that when he has failed to win, other riders have prevented Lorenzo from winning instead, Jorge’s Yamaha team-mate Ben Spies once and Stoner’s own Honda team-mate Dani Pedrosa three times.
Casey has sealed eight victories so far this season, as many as he managed in the 2009 and 2010 seasons put together. In 2008, he finished second to Valentino Rossi with the biggest ever points total for a runner-up – 280 – with six victories. But he’ll have to win all three of the last GPs this year to break his 2007 world championship-winning mark of 10 victories from 18 races. But who’s to say he can’t… ?
Yamaha Racing
Of course, it’s not that straightforward, as these stats demonstrate. Jorge Lorenzo won nine times last year and finished off the podium just twice, and he won’t be in the mood to give up his title quietly. As you can see below, Casey will need to win and hope his only title rival has an uncharacteristic bad day. It should be a fascinating race!
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