Red Bull Motorsports
F1
The title pressure is on: can Max Verstappen afford to drop a single point?
What are Max Verstappen’s chances of winning the F1 title now and how does he need to place in the next races - compared to Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri?
Following the dramatic post-race double McLaren disqualification in Las Vegas, the F1 drivers championship title is still up for grabs as the penultimate weekend of the season begins.
Since the Qatar Grand Prix is a sprint race weekend, more points can be won. That begs the question: what does Max Verstappen need to do to keep his title chances alive this weekend?
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What the Qatar Grand Prix could mean for the championship title
Lusail International Circuit has been a happy hunting ground for Verstappen
© Mark Thompson/Getty Images
The short answer is that Verstappen needs to amass more points over the course of the weekend than Norris. Both he and Piastri are 24 points behind Lando Norris, and with a maximum of 25 points available in the final weekend, they both need to be fewer than 25 points behind to take the championship beyond Qatar.
Verstappen will therefore be focused on finishing ahead of Norris this weekend, to take the title to the final weekend. If Verstappen wins both the sprint race and the main race, he will be a maximum of 16 points behind Norris, assuming the Brit finishes second in both races.
If Verstappen wins the race and both McLarens finish outside of the point-scoring places, it will put Max one point ahead going into the final race. That would make the final race a head-to-head battle between him and Norris, with whoever finishes ahead of the other winning the title.
If Norris wins more points than Verstappen and Piastri over the weekend, he will win the title in Qatar.
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What Verstappen needs to do
Norris vs Verstappen: who'll blink first in the title race?
© Mark Thompson/Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
As for what Verstappen needs to do, winning the sprint race isn’t vital. Of course, winning it will increase his chances, but winning the main race is more important. The seven-point difference between first and second will make more of an impact.
Last season, Verstappen won the Qatar Grand Prix by six seconds, with Norris finishing 10th. I’m sure he’d bite your hand off for the same result this year.
If Verstappen can reduce the gap between himself and Norris to fewer than seven points over the course of this weekend, he’ll be in a great position going to Abu Dhabi. That’ll mean he can guarantee a fifth F1 world championship title by winning the race.
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Verstappen’s sparkling form
Sparkling form is rewarded with a face-full of sparkling wine in Vegas
© Hector Vivas/Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
Verstappen’s form going into the weekend in Qatar puts him in a good place. Since the summer break, he’s won four races and finished on the podium in the other four, closing the gap significantly to the papaya leaders.
Speaking to racingnews365, Verstappen said: "They [Norris and Piastri] made a few mistakes after the summer break or had a crash, while we had some good races in which everything came together. And yeah, then you can gain very quickly."
Below is a breakdown of how many points the three contenders have gained since the summer break:
- Norris - 115
- Piastri - 82
- Verstappen - 179
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Verstappen’s title history
World title number three was sealed under lights in Doha in 2023
© Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
In Verstappen’s four previous title-winning seasons, he hasn’t entered the final two races as such an underdog. His first, the 2021 title, was famously close, with Verstappen winning on the final lap, but his other three triumphs have been relatively straightforward.
If he can eradicate the 24-point gap to Norris in the final two races, this will be Max’s fifth world championship title. Following the post-race events of the Las Vegas GP, it’s all to play for, but the Qatar weekend is key.
