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James Bardolph and ddk predict the outcome of the ECS Season 5 finals
ECS returns to London this weekend, but an unexpected mix of teams makes this a very difficult CS:GO event to predict. We sat down with two of the world's best casters to find out what will go down.
The ECS Season 5 finals are about to get under way at Wembley Arena in London. Eight top Counter-Strike: Global Offensive teams will compete for a share of the US$660,000 (€561,635) prize pool over the next three days in front of a massive live crowd. The stage looks great, the players seem ready to go and the action is just a few hours away.
But unlike many of the previous ECS events, which feature the top teams from the online league and last for months, there are quite a few surprising teams in London. While the big names such as SK Gaming and mousesports have missed out on the LAN finals, names such as NRG and Luminosity have made it in, to the surprise of many.
This has created a competition with a very different look to many of the big LANs, and one that’s pretty difficult to predict. We sat down with casters James Bardolph and Dan ‘ddk’ Kapadia to get them to predict what will go down this weekend in London.
Some of the big name teams have missed out on this LAN – are you surprised by some of the teams that made it here?
James Bardolph: For me, NRG was the huge surprise, not just qualifying but the fashion in which they did it. 17-1! Only rivaled by Astralis over in Europe. I really, really hope nobody gets poached from this team. It reminds me of the team Damian ‘daps’ Steele had with, I think the org was Denial when Shahzeeb ‘ShahZaM’ Khan got poached by C9. I have déjà vu from then, but now of course, with a stronger team.
I expected Ninjas in Pyjamas to make it to LAN but it seems they're not ready yet. I think they're still a team in transition. They changed to a hyper-aggressive team and are now still finding their balance between being aggressive and unpredictable, and so on. We saw that William ‘draken’ Sundin has made his exit, despite his stats on paper, he may have been one of their more volatile elements so we shall see how Jonas ‘Lekr0’ Olofsson fits in there.
Mousesports should have made LAN. They know that, I know that. They're capable. Just missing the eye of the tiger. Who knows when it will appear. eUnited should have probably made LAN as well and I think they will in future unless other teams catch up in NA, such as a more stable SK. I’m very much looking forward to seeing them in action next season.
Dan ‘ddk’ Kapadia: I think there can tend to be a degree of volatility with the online seasons due to the fact that we get roster alterations, teams working hard travelling to events and sometimes not being in the best shape due to jet lag, general fatigue or other factors. But ultimately, it doesn’t do anything to take away from the achievement of some of the teams who have made it. NRG are a very welcome surprise, I wouldn’t say that I’m very shocked in their qualification, but instead the manner in which they qualified. We’re all just wondering at this point: can they do what Fnatic did not so long ago and cement online form into LAN form?
Either way, this season was very tight and anyone could have made it – it may actually have been the most competitive season overall.
James and ddk return as the faces of FACEIT
© FACEIT
Which team that people are perhaps counting out have the biggest potential to do well?
Bardolph: A lot of teams have variables at the moment: FaZe playing with Jørgen ‘cromen’ Robertsen, when they were expecting Olof ‘olofmeister’ Kajbjer Gustafsson to come back. They were looking stable with Richard ‘Xizt’ Landström, but now he’s on Fnatic. Pujan ‘FNS’ Mehta outgoing Cloud9. For me I would say Fnatic and NRG. I think NRG are still in the phase of building LAN confidence. Coming off of a good run at Starseries, the timing could be right for them. I have had my eye on Fnatic maybe the past year at this point, but they will likely need time to gel with their new player, so all eyes on NRG for me.
ddk: I think NRG are likely to still be considered big underdogs despite their recent finals run at StarSeries. But now people are more aware of them on the world stage. Interestingly, a team that has a lot of the same tools, but has struggled to harness them as confidently is Luminosity. They are the team noone is looking at this finals, and they could certainly do quite well.
How do you think Cloud9 will perform knowing that FNS is leaving after the event?
Bardolph: They are playing with the unit they have had for a little while, so I don’t think it matters massively. That said, being the outgoing guy, maybe it makes a change psychologically. I always wondered about the fragging power of FNS on the team, so I am not surprised they kicked him in that respect. You saw many pundits say he never had enough time to really try anything though, so you wonder what the thinking was behind adding him in the first place.
ddk: I’m not sure if it will be too impactful. Ultimately FNS was a band aid solution, and as he himself stated, they just didn’t have the time to really implement an entirely new system. I think C9 will be reinvigorated on their next pick up, so long as it’s someone more suitable. For this event, I think it’ll actually lift a lot of pressure from FNS and also his teammates, which could make them quite dangerous – it will be fascinating to see in practice how this goes!
This is what the teams are playing for
© FACEIT
So Group A, how do you see that going. Who makes it into the semi-finals?
Bardolph: Bet the house on Astralis, bet the dog on anyone else for second place. I think all three are capable, though I am learning slightly more towards Fnatic or Liquid.
ddk: Astralis and Team Liquid are the safe picks for me. I feel like both teams, especially Astralis, are quite consistent at the moment.
How about Group B?
Bardolph: With the new G2, that’s a complete roulette wheel. You tell me! No seriously, tell me.
ddk: NRG and FaZe for me make the most sense. Luminosity will make for some volatility, and this is the perfect group for them to do damage, but I don’t see them making playoffs. NRG are looking better and better and have gathered more experience, so I expect big things from them. I think FaZe’s quality will be more than enough to deal with a currently weakened G2.
Which two teams do you think make it to the final?
Bardolph: I’ve been waiting for Kevin ‘Ex6TenZ’ Droolans to make it back to top flight CS, it’s very early for this G2 team of course, but a run would be fantastic, both for them and as a story. I want to see NRG cause upsets and bring people to tears. What would the final be like with these two teams at the current stage in their lives? Who knows, and I would love to find out. So really, that’s my wishlist for finals. Who is more likely to make it? Astralis and… Team Liquid.
ddk: I have Astralis and Team Liquid for this one. I think they are the two most stable and experienced teams we have in the competition after all the last minute roster changes.
What do you think will be the most played and least played map of the event and why?
Bardolph: Most played, it’ll be Mirage as most teams are comfortable on it. If mouz were here, maybe it would be vetoed more. Least played map? Nuke. In the history of Nuke maps – as long as I have been commentating at least – there has been a gulf between the beast teams on Nuke and everyone else, which is why I think Dust 2 could be picked more, even though it’s still very new.
ddk: Mirage will likely be the most played. Pretty much all teams are comfortable to go to that map. I think Mousesports helped to up people's overall game there, as it was a hard map to avoid playing vs. them and it was something they really built their success on lately in the top level of CS. I imagine Cache will be the least played, as we’re seeing a lot less of that recently due to it becoming a bit stagnant. It’s also a map that can be considered more volatile due to the fact that it’s friendlier to a more aim heavy playstyle.
Why is this going to be the best ECS event yet?
Bardolph: 2018 is the year of FACEIT. Also my face is on the London Underground which I didn’t even know about!
ddk: I think we’re going to get some pretty insane games. That’s what I’m looking forward to the most!
