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F1
How Max Verstappen can still win the 2025 F1 title – scenario cheat sheet
With just one race left in the 2025 F1 season, Max Verstappen's still in with a chance of winning his fifth title. Here’s the full breakdown of what he must achieve in the final race to beat the odds.
Following the dramatic post-race double McLaren disqualification in Las Vegas, and Max Verstappen’s win in Qatar, just 16 points separate the top three in the drivers' championship standings.
What does Verstappen need to do to win the title in the final weekend?
01
What the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix could mean for the championship title
Verstappen has looked relaxed in Abu Dhabi so far this week
© Mark Thompson/Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
Going into the final race, Verstappen is 12 points behind Lando Norris and four points ahead of Oscar Piastri. Therefore, he doesn’t have to worry about the Australian if he finishes ahead of him in the race. The situation with Norris is different, though.
If Verstappen wins the race, he needs Norris to finish no higher than fourth. Verstappen finishing first and Norris finishing fourth would be a 13 point difference, seeing Max win the title. If Lando finishes in the podium places, he will win the title - it won’t matter where anyone else finishes.
Considering first place earns seven more points than second, the place gap Verstappen will need if he finishes below first will be greater. If he finishes second, he needs Norris to finish no higher than eighth. If he finishes third, he needs Norris to finish no higher than ninth.
If both drivers finish on the same points, which would happen if Max finishes second and Lando finishes seventh, then the championship is decided on a countback of second-place finishes in the season. Norris will always win in this instance, as he has eight second-place finishes to Verstappen’s five. Therefore, Verstappen needs to get 13 points more than Lando this weekend to win the title.
Of course, if both Verstappen and Norris finish outside of the points-winning places, or don’t finish the race, Piastri can win the title by finishing in the top two places.
02
What Verstappen needs to do
Another win will almost certainly be required
© Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
As for what Verstappen needs to do, winning the sprint race isn’t vital. Of course, winning it will increase his chances, but winning the main race is more important. The seven-point difference between first and second will make more of an impact.
To put the pressure on Norris, Verstappen will want to secure pole in qualifying on Saturday, forcing Norris to chase in the final race.
Verstappen has won the Abu Dhabi grand prix four times in his career, including the dramatic final lap victory over Lewis Hamilton to secure his first championship title. However, he finished sixth last season, while Norris won. He’ll want to make sure there not a repeat of last season’s result.
03
Verstappen’s sparkling form
Sparkling form is rewarded with a face-full of sparkling wine in Vegas
© Hector Vivas/Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
Verstappen’s form going into the weekend in Qatar puts him in a good place. Since the summer break, he’s won four races and finished on the podium in the other four, closing the gap significantly to the papaya leaders.
Speaking to racingnews365, Verstappen said: "They [Norris and Piastri] made a few mistakes after the summer break or had a crash, while we had some good races in which everything came together. And yeah, then you can gain very quickly."
Below is a breakdown of how many points the three contenders have gained since the summer break:
- Norris - 115
- Piastri - 82
- Verstappen - 179
04
Verstappen’s title history
World title number three was sealed under lights in Doha in 2023
© Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
In Verstappen’s four previous title-winning seasons, he hasn’t entered the final two races as such an underdog. His first, the 2021 title, was famously close, with Verstappen winning on the final lap, but his other three triumphs have been relatively straightforward.
If he can eradicate the 24-point gap to Norris in the final two races, this will be Max’s fifth world championship title. Following the post-race events of the Las Vegas GP, it’s all to play for, but the Qatar weekend is key.
